60 Years of Bad Real Estate Predictions

Lets keep today's "expert opinions" on real estate in perspective.

The Santa Barbara Association of Realtors put out this information some time ago:

The prices of houses seem to have reached a plateau, and there is reasonable expectancy that prices will decline.” (Time, December 1, 1947)

“Houses cost too much for the mass market. Today’s average price is around $8,000—out of reach for two-thirds of all buyers.” (Science Digest, April 1948)

“The goal of owning a home seems to be getting beyond the reach of more and more Americans. The typical new house today costs $28,000.” (Business Week, September 4, 1969)

“The era of easy profits in real estate may be drawing to a close.” (Money, January 1981)

“Most economists agree…[a home] will become little more than a roof and a tax deduction, certainly not the lucrative investment it was through much of the 1980s.” (Money, April 1986)

baby boomers are all housed now. They are being followed by the baby bust. By 2005, real housing prices will sit 40 percent below where they are today.” (Harvard economist Gregory Mankiw, “The Baby Boom, the Baby Bust and the Coming Collapse of Housing Prices.” Journal of Regional Economics, Fall 1989)

“A home is where the bad investment is.” (San Francisco Examiner, November 17, 1996)

“If you have bought your house since the War… You have made your deal at the top of the market… The days when you couldn’t lose on a house purchase are no longer with us.” (House Beautiful, November 1948)

“Be suspicious of the ‘common wisdom1 that tells you ‘Buy now’…Because continuing inflation will force home prices and rents higher and higher.” (NEA Journal, December 1970)

“In California…For example, it is not unusual to find families of average means buying $I00,000 houses.. .I’m confident prices have passed their peak.” (John Wesley English & Gray Emerson Cardiff, The Coming Real Estate Crash. 1980)

‘”If you’re looking to buy, be careful. Rising home values are not a sure thing anymore.” (Miami Herald, October 25, 1985)

“We’re starting to go back to the time when you bought a home not for its potential money-making abilities, but rather as a nesting spot.” (Los Angeles Times, January 31,1993)

“Financial planners agree that houses will continue to be a poor investment.” (Kiplinger s Personal Financial Magazine, November 1993)

“Your house is a roof over your head. It’s not an investment.” (Everything You Know about Money Is Wrong, 2000)